Latest facts and reason ...

Once again I'm just going to rip off Ben Goldacre for figures because unlike him I can't be bothered to spend my time going through the Cochrane database - him with his use of facts and reason eh? To quote TMWRNJ - 'Yeah, but you can prove anything with facts'.

So he's talking about the drug Tamiflu (or oseltamivir to give it it's proper name), and another drug called zanamivir (or Relenza). He quotes data from the Cochrane database and the NICE review from February 2009 and asks

"Do these drugs treat flu? And do they prevent it? ... oseltamivir reduced the average (“median”) time to alleviation of symptoms by 0.68 days. For zanamivir the figure was 0.71 days. So you get better 16 or 17 hours sooner if you take these drugs.

The prevention studies are a bit more exciting. ... oseltamivir 75mg daily was 61% effective compared with placebo, and 73% effective at 150mg daily, while Relenza was 62% effective. In trials looking at preventing influenza in people who were living in households where someone was already infected, the drugs were also pretty good."

To summarise: if you get flu, take it and you'll get better a bit quicker (and probably not feel quite as bad as if you hadn't), and if you have contact with someone who's infectious it's a really good idea to take it as a preventative measure. He argues the drugs aren't that effective, but I disagree. For prevention that's a good figure. I suppose what he's getting at is staying at home, using disposable tissues and catching your sneezes is still the best option to avoid infection. If you're having to use Tamiflu it's a 'last line'.

Now to address the concerns of the panicking amongst you - have a look here. Robert Booy, head of clinical research at the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance in Sydney says "It's likely this outbreak has been running for ... more than eight weeks [in Mexico]. Influenza tends to, on average, infect two people for every one case. The doubling then occurs every three days, which is the serial interval. This means that from day one to day 30 you go to about 1,000 cases, but in the next month, you go to a million."

So if there have been hundreds of thousands of cases already in Mexico, about 100 deaths gives a mortality rate of 0.1%. Combined with the DoH's worst case figures (30 million infected in the UK) this gives a likelihood of 30 000 deaths IF the infection becomes widespread. So about 3 times as many flu deaths as we get in a normal year. The UK is not going to have a big problem. The developing world will probably not be so lucky.

As I've said before we're not going to end up living in a Mad Max apocalyptic wasteland fighting off hoards of swine flu mutated half pig monsters - pity.

It's flu ...

People get flu every day, and keep in mind that people die of flu every day.  In the USA an estimated 36 000 deaths a year.  From a population of about 300 million that's 12 per 100 000 people per year.  They have a reasonably good first world healthcare system so if we extrapolate that to the UK it'd be about 7 440 deaths per year.  Stats I've seen in the press this week suggest 10 000 per year.

That's why we try to give all older people flu vaccine free on the NHS.

So today publicly we see the DoH's 'worst case' figures for what could happen if swine flu becomes a pandemic and they are ...

Up to half the UK population - 30 million people - becoming infected if the outbreak turns into a pandemic.  Up to 2,000 hospital admissions per 100,000 people - or 1.2 million total and up to 1,250 fatalities per 100,000 - or 750,000 people.  A lot more than 10 000 per year.  But higher medical authorities than I are suggesting our high state of readiness - and trust me we are ready - will lessen this.

If you have a young child / baby, are elderly or have a pre-existing respiratory problem or an immunodeficiency problem take care, 'catch it, bin it, kill it' as they say.

At the risk of tempting fate ...

This is the first time since the end of November that I've been able to stretch and do some light exercise every morning of the week before going to work.

Quality TV programming?

At the risk of sounding like Fireman Fritter now I have a blog I'm suddenly tempted to write about everything happening to me day to day.

For example, today I'm excited about having been given a digibox, and - for the price of a couple of SCART leads - am able to watch all these extra channels.  I've only ever had access to the 4 basic terrestrial ones before.  It's amazing how much Top Gear, QI, Never Mind The Buzzcocks and old reruns of The Professionals there are.  And if you get bored of them there's an almost constant stream of Steven Seagal / Jason Statham movies on ITV2/3/4 and / or Channel 5.

When your ex just won't listen ...

I got another letter from Pipex 2 days ago dated 9th April and yet another today dated 6th April.  I'd written to Audrey Devenney as I figure it's better to maintain contact through a single named representative who knows your case.  I suppose you'd call it good customer care, but Pipex thinks differently.

The first letter was from Niall McKenna from Customer Relations, but this time a department in Birmingham, working for "Pipex UK Ltd a Tiscali UK Limited Company".  Niall claimed he tried to phone me too, but didn't leave a message on my voicemail either.  He referenced my letter of 26th March and acknowledged a billing problem, but went on to say he couldn't deal with my issue as he didn't have my Pipex account number or the landline number on which my services had been provided.  Which was odd - because those details were on my previous correspondence.  Which he referenced.

The second letter was from Anthony Marren based in the same department as Niall.  He apologised for the issues I'd experienced and acknowledged I'd cancelled my account.  He didn't mention any problems recognising which account was mine, but asked for the first invoice from my new ISP in order "to calculate what refund is owed".  The weird thing is I sent a copy of that invoice with my letter dated 26th March which I know his department must have received, 'cos  I sent it by registered secure post, and 'cos his colleague Niall, who works in the same department, referenced that letter in his reply.

Today I sent another letter copied to all three of them - Niall, Audrey and Anthony - repeating all the information I know they must already have - but have somehow mislaid - and enclosing all of my previous correspondence too, just in case.  I explained again I’m available via mobile most evenings and weekends and if they'd leave a message I'd respond promptly to a phone number with a normal UK landline prefix.  I then tried to help Pipex as best I could with the following clear explanation of the cost of refusing to do so.

"I would urge you to use this method of communication.  Every time I send you a letter by registered post (which I will continue to do given the difficulties Pipex staff have had in responding to communications without requesting information I know they’ve already received) it costs £4.60 per letter.  ... The total postage cost so far for all letters I’ve sent (including this one) has been £19.12.  In addition, after I received a letter from your third party debt collection agency, Commercial Credit Services, threatening legal action I was required to telephone them on yet another 0871 telephone number costing me an additional £1.74.  Since all of these calls and letters are derived from further errors made by Pipex I’m adding them to the total amount now owed.  By my calculation the total amount now comes to £104.09".

I hope they take note as there seem to be problems for Tiscali at the moment in the wider financial world and I'd hate to see them getting into trouble for wasting company money.

When your ex starts playing rough ...

A few days went by and I got a letter (addressed to "Mr D Humes Mr D Hume") dated 11th February, demanding £9.78.  John Cox - from Pipex Credit Control - warned me if I didn't pay in 6 days my service would be suspended.  John asked me to call him on an 0871 number to talk about it with a 'dedicated customer service representative', but I didn't want to waste more money on expensive telephone calls.  If my old ISP were threatening to cut off an Internet service - which they hadn't been providing for over a month - I thought I'd leave it.  A clean break's best at the end of a relationship and writing to you a month after it's over begging for money seemed a bit pathetic.  They'd probably be embarrassed if I called them.  A few days later I got another letter from John dated 17th February.  This was also addressed to the conjoined twins "Mr D Humes Mr D Hume".  Now he was getting desperate.  He made another empty threat to disconnect me if I didn't pay in 10 days.  'Honey I'm over you, I'm with someone else now and they're being good to me' I wanted to say - but didn't fancy paying for an 0871 phone call to do it.  He also mentioned not paying might incur cancellation fees.

Next I had a letter dated 26th February from Audrey Devenney at Pipex Customer Relations.  She was replying to the letter I'd sent (my name and address were correct, and they'd even added the title doctor, which I don't usually use).  Audrey apologised for; any inconvenience I'd experienced during our break up, if 'I felt' they'd failed in their customer service, and she could see from my account details an engineer was requested and apologised they never came.  She said she'd tried calling me - although didn't explain why she hadn't left a voicemail or how my phone hadn't logged the call.  She claimed according to their records my account appeared to be active, and they needed a copy of my 'go-live letter' or first bill from my new ISP to update them.  Once this was done, Audrey added, she'd be able to investigate any refunds due.  She also claimed I had to reorder a MAC code 'cos the first one expired on the 10th January.  She was wrong for 2 reasons.  I tried to use it before the 10th and it shouldn't have expired 'til the 18th anyway.

I'd moved on by this time and figured I'd get around to writing to Audrey when I could.  Errors Pipex had made weren't my main concern in life, and besides my 'go-live letter' had account details for my new ISP including password information I didn't want to pass onto Pipex for fear of the havoc their incompetence could unleash.  And I didn't have a paper bill because my new ISP is free.

I only realised how messed up my (Pip)ex was a month later when I received a letter dated 23rd March from Commercial Credit Services - a debt collecting company.  Pipex was getting her own back in crazy 'stalker-esque' fashion  by telling her friends I owed her money.  The letter threatened legal proceedings and claimed they'd add court fees and solicitors costs to my bill.  They wanted £9.78 immediately, but if I didn't pay would take me to court for £89.84!  They also warned this could affect my future credit rating and mortgage applications.  Pretty tough talk for £9.78 I didn't owe.

So I called Commercial Credit Services, in Bromsgrove, on yet another 0871 number and spoke to Lucy.  I explained not only did I not owe Pipex any money, they owed me.  She asked me to write to them again and to copy the letter to her at Commercial Credit Services, which I did.

I felt a bit embarrassed my ex had dragged Lucy into our sad break up story, but in this letter I explained the whole thing  and encouraged Pipex to communicate directly with my new ISP.  I enclosed their name, address and another letter giving my new ISP free reign to tell them when I switched services.  I added "I strongly urge you to contact them directly yourselves, not only to clarify the errors made in the handing over of my account, but also because they may be able to assist your company with hints and tips on how to improve your customer service".  I also asked for any further communication to be done by staff empowered to negotiate with me - preferably a single named contact - rather than automated billing messages or letters from third parties threatening legal action.  I implored, "I’m polite and won’t raise my voice or lose my temper ... I’m available via mobile most evenings and weekends.  Otherwise it tends to be switched off as I’m employed in a busy hospital environment, although you may catch me outside of the hospital Wednesday or Thursday afternoons after 2pm.  If you leave a message I will respond promptly ... if given a telephone number with a normal UK landline prefix as I’m not prepared to spend more money on phone bills to 0871 call centres".

I haven't heard from Lucy or Commercial Credit Services since and I doubt I will, because the next day I phoned my new ISP (for free) and asked them if I could get a copy of my first invoice proving the date I switched providers.  They explained how to download a printable copy from their website, for free.  The bill was obviously for nothing as they provide my Internet service for free, but it gave my starting date with them as 8th January 2009.  Well before Pipex claimed I owed anything.  I quickly drafted another letter to Audrey and Commercial Credit Services with copies of this statement attached.

When your ex can't let go ...

When I left Pipex it wasn't easy.  I didn't blame them for everything - it's a tough economic climate and I can see how easy it'd be to stray from noble, worthwhile ideas about customer loyalty and good service to bottom line money making.  I certainly didn't blame Neil, Nick, Shane, Andy, Gary Rodgus, Martin Solis or Nick Pennington for my woes.  But when I left, staff on Pipex's cancellation line assured me my direct debit would be cancelled - by Pipex - as part of the handover process to my new ISP.  It was not.  On 24th January 2009 my old chum Gary got in touch with the following email;

“Dear Mr D HUME, Advance Notice for Direct Debit Payment.  Your new bill is due to be created in the next 14 days.  Thank you for paying by Direct Debit.  We will collect your payment of £9.78 on or immediately after 05/02/09.  Once again we would like to thank you for choosing Pipex as your service provider. If you have any questions, or would like to discuss other Pipex services, we are here to assist and look forward to hearing from you.  Kind regards, Gary Rodgus, Head of Customer Service, Pipex”

'What's up with Gary' I wondered.  There he was in December saying;

"Dear Mr Humes (OK he spelt my name wrong, but Pipex had been doing that for years, even after I emailed them about it, corrected my account information on their website and mentioned it in passing to their staff on the phone - I just figured it's one of those little quirks in a relationship you have to let go), We are sorry to hear that you are considering moving to another service provider for your broadband.  ...  Your MAC code is valid for 25 days from the date of this letter ..."

It went on from there, but Gary sounded upset.  I felt sorry for him truth be told, but decided not to call 'cos I'd realised calling on 0871 numbers costs a fair bit, and at the end of a relationship a clean break's best. It's worth noting the MAC code should have been valid - according to Gary's letter - 'til 18th January, but it wasn't.  Maybe that clued me into the kind of insincere guy Gary can be.  So I contacted my bank and instructed them to cancel direct debits to Pipex.  I knew I didn't owe them any money.  I'd had Internet access via a different supplier since 8th January, and in the month before that only had a few days when my Pipex connection worked, so they couldn't think I owed them could they?

On 11th February I got a call from a computer at Pipex asking why I hadn’t paid my direct debit for a service I hadn’t had for over a month.  I didn't get the computer's name, but I felt hurt that Pipex weren't prepared to employ a person to talk to me, so I wrote them a letter about who owed who.  I explained from December 2008 to February 2009 I’d accrued copious notes of my contacts with Pipex and Tiscali, and had taken advice from Ofcom about the way such disputes are managed.  I certainly didn't owe them money.  In fact I was due some compensation.

My phone bill for calls to technical support, cancellation and customer care for this period was £17, and given the conflicting and inaccurate information they supplied, which failed to resolve my problems I felt it only fair I get this back.  From 10th December to 7th January I didn’t have an Internet connection and expected a refund of 1 month’s bill.  I also paid £9.78 on 7th January for another month’s supply, but as I was switching supplier at the time I expected most of that to be refunded too.  I also explained I’d happily return both of the wireless routers I was sent, along with all their cabling and ADSL modem / phone line splitters, which I was informed were functioning normally, but didn’t resolve my problems.  I expected a refund on these (the £48.72 I was actually charged not the £42.55 I was quoted).

The total amount was £83.23.

I also asked that any further calls made to discuss the matter be made by staff empowered to negotiate with me, preferably a single named contact, rather than automated billing messages which, were dismissive and a waste of time.  They didn't seem to understand.

Resolution?

On 30th December I regained hope.  Martin Solis from Tiscali's high-level complaints department based in Stevenage called.  He was polite and explained he'd been asked to call following my chat with Ofcom.  He couldn't sort my problems out right away, but he'd ensure someone called back soon having 'read through my file'.  And this time I was called back, by Nick Pennington, also from Tiscali high level complaints in Stevenage who arranged to call back again on 5th January 2009 after he'd read through my file - just like Martin had promised he would.  I was so happy again - they did care about me after all, the relationship didn't have to be over.  It was just like Ofcom had said, take control.

Although at the back of my mind I did wonder why Tiscali were calling?  Up 'til now I'd only spoken to Pipex employees.  Why was Pipex's parent company involved?  Perhaps because of this?

After a few more attempts to change my settings and switch equipment around, in exactly the same way Neil from Manila had tried back in December, Nick posted me a new router.  Although the old router was working fine it looked like it was trying to link me to Pipex's old servers - which weren't there anymore as they'd been switched to shiny new Tiscali ones.  On 7th January Pipex took a direct debit payment of £9.78 from my bank account, presumably to pay for the Internet services they'd been providing me with for the last month.  Except as you'll have gathered by now, they hadn't been.

The new router arrived, was connected and finally restored my Internet connection.  However, despite Martin and Nick's best efforts I’d decided by this point my relationship with Pipex had gone just about as far as it could and it was time for me to move on.  With a heavy heart I looked through message boards and consumer advice sites trying to find the right kind of ISP for a guy like me.

When I finally found the right one I called them up and with a lump in my throat gave them the MAC code Gary Rodgus had sent me in the letter dated 24th December 2008.  But Pipex weren't going to let me go that easily.  Keep in mind MAC codes are supposed to last for up to 30 days after issue and this was early January 2009, so there was no way it could have been out of date.  And yet my new beau, my new would-be ISP informed me it was not a functioning MAC code and couldn’t be used to transfer my service.  I called cancellations again and to my surprise was given a new MAC code immediately over the telephone.  No letters, no five day waits.  Perhaps because of their Ofcom trouble at the time.

I changed my supplier that night and though I've had a flawless Internet connection since I'm not sure I'll ever truly love or trust another ISP again. You don't get over heart break like this easily.  Especially not when your old ISP starts to get jealous. 

Confusion ...

I called Ofcom and they gave it to me straight.  I shouldn't waste time with someone who didn't care about me, I should take control of the situation and be clear I wasn't to be taken advantage of.  I had noticed Pipex's service dropped the day after they'd taken the last direct debit from my bank account. Maybe Pipex was only after my money all along.

I called their number for cancellations and requested a MAC code (a code you need from your ISP to move to another supplier and which industry regulations state you must be given within 5 working days) and was informed, by Nick (somewhere in the UK), one would be sent to me within 5 working days.  On 22nd December no one came to my flat.  I called cancellations again and was told my MAC code should have arrived, but it hadn’t.  I was also told, by Shane (also somewhere in the UK), he'd ask BT to hurry my service request along.  Something just didn't feel right though.

So I called Pipex customer care and spoke to Andy (somewhere in the UK).  He told me my loss of service was due to a planned migration from Pipex to Tiscali servers at the exchange.  Tiscali had taken over my service as they'd taken over Pipex, and Andy said it was clearly documented on my account notes, there'd be downtime from 10th December to 29th December!  He told me I couldn't have a MAC code 'til this was done, and I’d have to wait until the 29th to decide whether I stayed with Pipex and requested compensation or moved to a different supplier!

All this time Pipex tech support and cancellations had been lying to me!  I was stunned.  Not too stunned to remind Andy this was in contravention of industry regulations regarding the provision of MAC codes - which he didn't deny, but told me there was nothing more he could do.  

No engineers came to my flat on 23rd December either.  Though I was finally telephoned by a second line engineer (from Manila) who denied all knowledge of a planned visit by BT engineers having been arranged, and said she too could clearly see I'd have no service 'til the 29th December.  My frustration was compounded by the knowledge I'd turned down £1440 of work to stay in for these engineers.  I went away for a few days at Christmas to try and recover from these blows.

So imagine my confusion when I got home on 29th to find a letter – dated 24th December 2008 from none other than Gary Rodgus - Head of Pipex Customer Service - containing a MAC code (valid for only 25 days despite the industry watchdog saying it should be valid for 30 days) and expressing distress I was moving to another supplier!  My connection still wasn't working and I was conflicted.  Andy was telling me I couldn't change ISP 'til my service was reconnected - although he'd also said it'd be working by now.  And yet here was a letter from the 'Head of Customer Service' telling me to go for it, it was over and though he was hurt by my going he'd understand in the long run.

Maybe at this point I should have left, walked away and said it was over, but I was worried if I my connection was still down and I tried to switch to someone new they wouldn't be able to connect with me either. Perhaps I'd never be able to have a satisfactory relationship with an ISP again.

Loss ...

On the 10th December 2008 I had a partial loss of Internet connection.  Not the first time it'd happened.  No relationship is completely without it's little glitches now and then, and I wouldn't suggest Pipex and I were the perfect couple.  But we'd always got through it before.  After a few days things would settle back to normal and we'd carry on like before.

Every 4 minutes the router lost synchronisation with the exchange and had to be restarted to enable browsing.  I contacted Pipex’s technical support line and spoke with a man called Neil (also from Manila).  He talked me through a series of changes to my settings and connection equipment, which to be fair I'd already tried, but I know how it goes in tech support having a few friends who've worked in that unforgiving environment.  Even reverting to old fashioned wires to connect to the router failed to rectify the problem.

So Neil gave me a reference number, and said second line engineers would call me back within 48 hours. But, then the router stopped synchronising altogether.  I'd lost my connection with Pipex, and if I'd known then what I know now maybe I'd have walked away then and there.  'It wasn't meant to be' I'd have thought, 'She wasn't the Internet service provider for me.  There are plenty more fish in the sea.  I'll give Orange a call, she seems nice.  Maybe she'd like to go for a coffee'.  But I wasn't that kind of customer.  Not then.

After waiting for my call for over 48 hours on 13th Decemebr I called tech support again.  Another polite Filipino man assured me second line engineers would call me back within 24 hours.  I called again on 15th December, well over 24 hours later, around 9am and was again reassured second line engineers would call by 5pm that day.  After 5pm no one had called.  I was hurt, lost and upset so I called tech support once more.  The man I spoke with this time was not as pleasant as Neil and his friends.  He said I'd be called back later that evening, but by now I was having doubts about Pipex's loyalty.  I wondered if she was up to something behind my back, so I asked to speak to a supervisor.

He acted like he'd been caught out.  He actively resisted allowing me to speak with a supervisor and insisted I’d be called back later.  But, given my experiences over the previous 5 days I wasn't going to be taken in by his smooth demeanour, and after 10 to 15 minutes of calmly and appropriately requesting to speak with his supervisor he eventually agreed.

She took a different tack.  Instead of avoiding the problems we were having in our relationship she blamed someone else.  She claimed there was a fault with my BT line and she'd arrange for BT engineers to visit my home to check the line equipment the following week.  I queried this, because the telephone line was working normally – I was speaking to her on it – but she insisted this was the cause of our problems, and although she couldn’t be specific about appointment times for BT engineers, they'd definitely be round Monday or Tuesday morning the following week.  It was Christmas time and I was planning to be on holiday anyway so I agreed to wait in those mornings.

Sadly next day I was offered work on those days, which would have netted me a tidy sum, but I was being loyal to my relationship.  I was going to stick it out.  Perhaps if this didn't work we could try counselling or something.  Of course, a third party to discuss our differences with, that'd sort us out.  So I called one - Ofcom.